26.123 Head of Forecasting and Workforce Modelling

Job summary

About the Department:

The Disclosure and Barring Service (DBS) was established as a Non-Departmental Public Body (NDPB) under the Protection of Freedoms Act (PoFA) 2012. We provide criminal record information to individuals and employers through DBS checks and we make barring decisions about individuals to help prevent harm to children and vulnerable adults.

The Strategy and Impact Directorate brings together strategy, insight, research, knowledge management, communications, partnerships, policy and performance management to help DBS lead, influence and demonstrate impact.

Job description

Job Purpose:

To lead the provision of high‑quality Forecasting and Workforce Modelling at DBS, ensuring robust, evidence‑based insight underpins operational delivery, major change programmes, financial sustainability and governance decision‑making. The role is accountable for forecasting accuracy, data quality, risk identification and capacity planning across Operations, enabling DBS to anticipate demand, deploy resources effectively and maintain service continuity within a self‑funding environment.

The postholder will lead and develop a high‑performing analytical function, drive continuous improvement in forecasting systems and data maturity, and ensure compliance with government analytical standards. As a senior member of the Directorate Management Team, the role contributes to collective leadership, organisational performance and delivery of the DBS Data Strategy, strengthening data capability and resilience across the organisation.

Person specification

Key Responsibilities

• Lead the development and delivery of high‑quality Forecasting and Workforce Modelling, using data from multiple systems and sources to support operational, strategic, financial and governance decision‑
• Act as the senior operational Forecasting and Workforce Modelling lead for Disclosure and Barring, providing a single point of accountability for identifying risks, assuring data quality, and shaping evidence‑based solutions.
• Lead capacity planning and demand management for major change programmes (including LTER and service transitions), ensuring continuity of service, risk mitigation and operational readiness.
• Lead the continuous improvement of the DBS forecasting and workforce modelling systems, exploiting available and emerging technology.
• Lead, motivate and develop high‑performing Forecasting and Workforce Modelling Team, setting clear objectives, prioritising workloads, quality assuring outputs and building future capability.
• Drive workforce, capacity and resource planning across Operations, ensuring demand, work allocation meet agreed quality, accuracy and performance tolerances.
• Build strong collaborative relationships across DBS, ensuring forecasting and workforce modelling information inform business planning, continuous improvement and operational delivery.
• Own and drive delivery of the DBS Data Strategy action plan, coordinating activity across business areas and ensuring progress against agreed priorities to improve data quality, resilience and use.
• Lead compliance with the Government Functional Standard for Analysis, including organisation‑wide assessments and delivery of improvement actions to support continuous improvement in analytical practice.
• Lead organisational data maturity improvement, including maturity assessments and delivery of improvement actions to strengthen data capability and reduce risk.
• Attend the Demand Planning Forum, ensuring demand forecasts are robust, accurate and reflect operational and financial risks within a self‑funding environment.
• Represent the function in technical Forecasting and Workforce Modelling discussions, data and software projects, and continuous professional development initiatives, improving analytical capability and tools.
• Act as a member of the Directorate Management Team, contributing to collective leadership, governance and organisational objectives.
• Deputise for the Associate Director – Organisational Performance and Intelligence as required.
• Undertake actions and corporate responsibilities in keeping with a member of the Directorate Management Team.

Corporate Duties:

• Support the Associate Director of Organisational Performance and Intelligence in their role as a member of the Directorate Leadership Team (DLT), and by engaging in and helping to drive change as required.
• Member of the wider DBS Leadership Team, specifically contributing to development and delivery of business opportunities, organisational development, and value for money.
• From time to time, the postholder may be asked to support corporate activity with duties that are commensurate with the grade (e.g. supporting other parts of the business with HR related matters)

Essential Criteria:

• Ability to deliver and lead others under pressure, prioritising work against competing demands to meet challenging deadlines.
• Strong analytical skills, with the ability to understand and analyse numerical data, and to identify and report the most salient points to interested parties, including senior stakeholders.
• Able to lead the development of Forecasting and Workforce Modelling Tools and prioritisation of what Forecasting and Workforce Modelling is developed and when for a wide range of users.
• Confident in the use of software applications including Microsoft Office suite.
• Record of achievement in a similar role, of operating in a complex environment, preferably in a comparable local and/or central government or relevant policy body/agency
• Experience of developing an effective approach to data collection and analysis which can drive operational delivery as well as inform and influence strategic direction
• Experience of building effective strategic working relationships with a wide range of stakeholders
• Experience of workforce planning in a large operational area
• Experience of leading teams, providing direction and managing performance
• Experience of producing Forecasts and Workforce Models for a range of audiences including senior management.
• Experience of using Government Functional Standards and CDDO Data Maturity Framework to drive continuous improvement.

Desirable Criteria:

• Ability to develop Ml using modern Ml Tools, i.e. Tableau, QIik Sense or Microsoft Power BI
• Experience of demand scenario planning
• Understanding of business case methodologies.
• Expert and current knowledge of Business Intelligence tools and technologies and their application in delivering high calibre information.

Further Information:

To view the DBS Recruitment and On-boarding Privacy Notice, please click the link below:

DBS Recruitment and On-boarding Privacy Notice - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

This privacy notice covers personal data collected during the recruitment, security clearance and on-boarding process.

Behaviours

We'll assess you against these behaviours during the selection process:

• Changing and Improving
• Seeing the Big Picture
• Making Effective Decisions
• Leadership
• Managing a Quality Service
• Delivering at Pace

We only ask for evidence of these behaviours on your application form:

• Changing and Improving

Benefits

Alongside your salary of £60,380, Disclosure & Barring Service contributes £17,492 towards you being a member of the Civil Service Defined Benefit Pension scheme. Find out what benefits a Civil Service Pension provides (opens in a new window).

Alongside your salary of £60,380, Disclosure & Barring Service contributes £17,492 towards you being a member of the Civil Service Defined Benefit Pension scheme. Find out what benefits a Civil Service Pension provides.

The DBS offers a number of excellent benefits for its employees. These can include:

• Generous annual leave entitlement
• Excellent maternity, paternity and adoption schemes (after a qualifying period)
• Commitment to the health and wellbeing of our employees
• Employee Assistance Programme
• Flexible working opportunities
• Eyecare voucher scheme
• Occupational Health Service including referrals for counselling and physiotherapy
• 24/7 Counselling and Wellbeing Service
• A Civil Service Pension with an employer contribution of 28.97%

The DBS vision and purpose is to make people safer by being a visible, trusted and influential organisation, providing an outstanding quality of service to all our customers and partners, where our people understand the important safeguarding contributions they make and feel proud to work here. To do this, the DBS is committed to being an employer that is able to attract, develop, retain and engage diverse talent that is representative of the communities we serve, and to be an organisation providing outstanding service to all our existing and new customers, who are diverse and have a range of different needs. We want all our staff to be able to bring their ‘whole self’ to work.

Further Information:

To view the DBS Recruitment and On-boarding Privacy Notice, please click the link below:

DBS Recruitment and On-boarding Privacy Notice - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Things you need to know

Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence can be a useful tool to support your application, however, all examples and statements provided must be truthful, factually accurate and taken directly from your own experience. Where plagiarism has been identified (presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own) applications may be withdrawn and internal candidates may be subject to disciplinary action. Please see our candidate guidance (opens in a new window) for more information on appropriate and inappropriate use.

Selection process details

This vacancy is using Success Profiles (opens in a new window), and will assess your Behaviours and Experience.

As part of the recruitment process the Disclosure & Barring Service will conduct a behaviours/experience based sift exercise and interview process.

To apply for this post, please provide a CV along with a suitability statement of no more than 1,000 words, outlining how your skills, experience and qualifications meet the requirements of the role, including all essential and desirable criteria, and the key responsibilities. You should also provide an example for the behaviour Changing and Improving

All candidates who are successful at the initial sifting stage will be invited to attend a virtual panel based interview via MS Teams. As part of the interview, you will deliver a short presentation on a function related subject. You will be given a brief for the presentation in advance of your interview. The presentation will be marked against the behaviour, Managing a quality service.

The aim of the panel interview will be to assess your ability to demonstrate the remaining behaviours:

• Seeing the big picture
• Changing and improving
• Making effective decisions
• Leadership
• Delivering at pace

The following timetable outlines indicative dates. Please note, these dates may be subject to change without prior notice.

Advert Closing date: Monday, 7 September 2026 at 10am.

The initial candidate sift is due to take place week commencing 7 September 2026.

Interviews are due to take place week commencing 21 September 2026.

Whilst we will endeavour to provide some flexibility with regards to dates wherever possible, it is unlikely that we will be able to offer an alternative date once an appointment has been scheduled.

Feedback will only be provided if you attend an interview or assessment.

Security

Successful candidates must undergo a basic (or equivalent) criminal record check.People working with government assets must complete baseline personnel security standard (opens in new window) checks.

Nationality requirements

This job is broadly open to the following groups:

• UK nationals
• nationals of the Republic of Ireland
• nationals of Commonwealth countries who have the right to work in the UK
• nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities with settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS) (opens in a new window)
• nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities who have made a valid application for settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS)
• individuals with limited leave to remain or indefinite leave to remain who were eligible to apply for EUSS on or before 31 December 2020
• Turkish nationals, and certain family members of Turkish nationals, who have accrued the right to work in the Civil Service

Further information on nationality requirements (opens in a new window)

Working for the Civil Service

The Civil Service Code (opens in a new window) sets out the standards of behaviour expected of civil servants.

We recruit by merit on the basis of fair and open competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission's recruitment principles (opens in a new window).The Civil Service embraces diversity and promotes equal opportunities. As such, we run a Disability Confident Scheme (DCS) for candidates with disabilities who meet the minimum selection criteria.

Diversity and Inclusion

The Civil Service is committed to attract, retain and invest in talent wherever it is found. To learn more please see theCivil Service People Plan (opens in a new window) and the Civil Service Diversity and Inclusion Strategy (opens in a new window).

Apply and further information

Once this job has closed, the job advert will no longer be available. You may want to save a copy for your records.

Contact point for applicants

Job contact :

• Name : Peter Elcoat – Associate Director of Organisational Performance and Intelligence
• Email : DBSPeopleSupportTeam@dbs.gov.uk

Recruitment team

• Email : DBSPeopleSupportTeam@dbs.gov.uk

Attachments

NEW G7 JD - Head of Forecasting and Workforce Modelling Opens in new window (docx, 335kB)Civil Service Behaviours - Success Profiles Opens in new window (pdf, 1043kB)