Deputy Head of Operational Research and Analysis

Job summary

The Analysis Division (AD), in Risk Management Group (RMG), brings together analysts from a range of disciplines, including economics and operational research. Together we produce impactful, innovative analysis essential to delivery of UKEF’s mission, and provide analytical leadership across the Department. We are made up of four branches:

• Country Risk Analysis – assessing economic and political risk factors relating to UKEF’s portfolio and pricing, delivering thematic macroeconomic analysis and monitoring and managing UKEF’s system of country exposure limits.
• Economic Analysis – developing economic insights and research, with particular focus on quantitative techniques and understanding the real-world impact of UKEF’s activities.
• Pricing – managing deal information and calculating premium so that UKEF both meets internationally-agreed requirements, and covers the risks we take through our exposures.
• Operational Research and Analysis (ORA)

The Operational Research & Analysis (ORA) branch’s core function is to manage, model and price risk across UKEF’s portfolio, monitoring how it evolves as we support UK exports around the globe. This task involves regular stress testing and scenario analysis exercises, as well as on-going reviews and development to ensure our methods represent best possible practice. The financial success of UKEF is dependent upon sound risk management practices, which are increasingly vital given the headwinds faced by the global economy.

Analysts in ORA also act as internal consultants, using our problem solving and communication skills to support colleagues right across UKEF. We work in close collaboration with every division on tasks as diverse as problem structuring, project management, model development, and statistical analysis, including data science and artificial intelligence. We offer a supportive and encouraging environment emphasising continual development of analytic, communication, and people skills through self-directed and external training, always seeking to apply what we have learnt to improve decision making and operations across UKEF.

ORA is also involved in major projects that will shape the department for years to come. Current examples include embedding financial reporting changes in line with new International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS 9 and 17), as well as projects to identify automation and data science or machine learning/artificial intelligence applications across the department.

Job description

The Deputy Head of ORA reports directly to the Head of ORA and provides day-to-day leadership and responsibility for the programme of work of the Operational Research and Analysis team. That programme includes four main areas:

• Portfolio modelling and analysis, which plays a central role in assessing risk across UKEF’s portfolio, measuring whether the Department is meeting its financial objectives and providing assurance to internal and external stakeholders. The importance of understanding our risk has grown in recent years in line with the growth of our portfolio, the diversity of products we offer and the range of counterparties we engage with.
• Project related work, ORA contributes to several transformational projects across the Department. Recently, the team led the development of new risk models as part of the Financial Reporting Changes project. Following implementation, a key objective is embedding processes and insights from the new suite of models to ensure continued compliance with the Standard. ORA also plays a critical role in projects aimed at improving the data and analysis infrastructure across the Department. In addition, the team is focused on modernising our modelling approach, automating key processes, and enhancing the communication and reporting provided to stakeholders.
• Analytical leadership. This includes development and adoption of new analytical techniques and technology in UKEF, in portfolio risk modelling but also in the wider field of data science – including use of new programming languages, software and statistical techniques. This requires horizon scanning and awareness of the latest advancements, and also looking for new ways and contexts in which to apply them.
• Internal Consultancy. Investigating problem areas and / or undertaking analysis which is too complex for other teams to carry out, and using the results to formulate advice. The work is commissioned by senior management and may relate to policy or operational issues.

The Deputy Head of ORA will also coordinate substantial strategic research projects, from scope to delivery, often involving significant technical challenges. Analysis performed during these projects may require the use of operational research techniques, statistical (including data science and AI) or mathematical modelling, or broader management science techniques. The Deputy Head of ORA provides relevant analysis and advice to ensure UKEF meets its strategic and business objectives, and as such good communication and interpersonal skills are highly valued. Quality assurance of the analysis work performed by other members of the team is a significant part of the role, encompasing both model and paper reviews. The role will likely also include the identification and definition of project opportunities, and agreement thereof with the Chief Analyst and Head of ORA. This work is done in collaborative environment, via consultation with senior managers and subject matter experts throughout UKEF.

The role will include line management responsibilities, supporting and encouraging the development of more junior colleagues, as well as ensuring that all regular staff management, reporting, and training requirements are met.

Main Activities

Leadership, team management and networking:

• Manage 3 Principal Quantitative Analysts (Grade 7 level) in accordance with departmental management policies to improve business performance and build potential.
• Assist or deputise for the Head of ORA as required (for example when they are out of the business).
• In collaboration with Head of ORA, set strategic direction and allocate ORA’s resources, ensuring that its analytical support and advice is to the satisfaction of clients, is accurate and timely and is consistent with UKEF's aims and business objectives.
• Collaborate with the Head of ORA and provide oversight of development and training across the ORA team (9 staff). Ensuring that training plans are maintained and work opportunities created for ORA team members, and that staff within ORA are able to pursue enjoyable and productive careers.
• Lead and motivate the team to deliver business outcomes/targets.
• Ensure effective communications are in place across the team, between colleagues, and with external stakeholders.
• Engage with customers across UKEF to determine their analysis or model development needs.
• Liaise with Treasury, UK Government Investments (UKGI), and other Export Credit Agencies (ECAs) around the world about portfolio risk management practices.

Portfolio risk management and model development:

• Manage, develop and maintain UKEF's portfolio risk modelling in the form of the Portfolio Risk Simulation Model (PRISM) and the PRISM process. PRISM is a core business critical model, underpinning measurement against UKEF’s financial objectives.
• Apply appropriate financial knowledge and risk management practices, including: Value at Risk modelling, stochastic modelling (including Monte Carlo simulation techniques). Apply software modelling knowledge of Excel VBA and/or python.
• Oversee and/or conduct scenario analysis and stress testing, reverse stress testing, and claims scenario analysis exercises, both regularly and on an ad hoc basis as required by UKEF’s Executive Committee and Board.
• Quality assure and/or provide portfolio risk analysis and value for money assessments for UKEF’s Active Portfolio Management (APM) activities. APM activities include monitoring risk concentrations, analysing value for money in reinsurance exercises, and providing other ad hoc analytic support.
• Oversee and undertake regular reviews of PRISM modelling assumptions and prepare papers for presentation to UKEF’s Enterprise Risk and Credit Committee (ERiCC).

Major project related work:

• Financial Reporting Changes: The aim of this project is to bring UKEF in line with new financial reporting standards (IFRS 9 and 17). This has a huge impact in portfolio risk management, including significant changes to portfolio risk modelling and processes to incorporate the impacts of macro-economic factors on UKEF’s future risk. The successful candidate will oversee the embedding of new models and techniques developed as part of this project.
• Other project opportunities: As need arises and strategic imperatives evolve. Current projects include the identification of automation and data science or machine learning/artificial intelligence applications and the modernisation of data and analysis infrastructure across the department.

Internal consultancy and data science/AI leadership across UKEF:

• Investigate problem areas and/or undertake analysis for other divisions, to support change that is too complex for them to carry out on their own.
• Carry out quality reviews where in-depth, cross-divisional knowledge or particular technical expertise is required.
• Perform analysis work using quantitative and qualitative analytical techniques, including machine learning/AI and data science. Present papers to UKEF’s Executive Committee/ERICC or other significant committees within the business.
• Review analysis and papers written by other members of the team, organise and actively participate in challenge sessions.
• Undertake continual professional development to expand the suite of tools and techniques that we can use as internal consultants across UKEF. We are currently interested in expanding our R, python, and data science expertise.
• Lead development of UKEF’s use of data science, particularly through identification and implementation of machine learning/AI applications.

Model development:

• Manage the development work and maintenance of the UKEF’s premium pricing models, used to calculate the premium we should charge for each deal based on our risk methodologies and OECD and other agreements UKEF has entered into.
• Engage with customers across UKEF to determine and scope their model development needs.
• Plan out development tasks and ensure that modelling policy and best practice is followed.
• Develop, maintain, and support models built in Excel VBA, python, and other software tools.
• Perform quality assurance to the models developed by other team members. Provide assurance to senior management and external stakeholders on the continuing effectiveness of Business-Critical models used by UKEF.

As part of this role the Deputy Head of ORA is expected to undertake at least one hundred hours of training per year. This training can be self-directed, internal (including role shadowing opportunities), or external. Our aim is to ensure that the Deputy Head of ORA is able to directly apply any training they undertake by identifying suitable projects and opportunities across UKEF.

This list is not exhaustive, and you may be required to carry out additional duties according to business needs.

Person specification

UK Export Finance is looking for motivated individuals with a desire to learn about the business. Successful candidates will be provided not only with functional training to enable them to do well in their role, but also with personal development to help them to achieve their career ambitions. Please note that the person specification below outlines at which stage(s) you will be assessed on how you meet the criteria for the role(s) including:-

A = assessed at application stage I = assessed at interview stage T = assessed by test stage = assessed at presentation stage

Essential

Qualifications

• Applicants must hold a highly numerate degree at a minimum 2:1 (or 2:2 with relevant experience or a postgraduate qualification) in subjects such as Data Science, Decision Science, Econometrics, Engineering, Mathematics, Operational Research, Physics or Statistics, while other numerate degrees—including Accounting, Biology, Business, Chemistry, Economics, Finance, Geography, IT, Management, Management Science, Psychology, Sociology, Social Sciences and Systems Science—may be accepted if at least 50% of their modules are highly numerate, with evidence required prior to interview. (A, T)
• Evidence of Continuing Professional Development (I)

Knowledge

• Knowledge of Operational Research techniques – using mathematical and / or statistical modelling methods to address management problems requiring such specialist input. (A, I)
• Knowledge of portfolio risk modelling (Credit metrics/VAR Models) (A, I)

Skills/Ability

• Ability to lead, coach and manage both immediate team members and colleagues at all levels; ensuring that results are delivered, including through others for which the post-holder is not formally responsible. (A, I)
• Communication skills to present modelling and risk analysis effectively to stakeholders, including at Executive Committee / Board level. Ability to respond with credibility within area of responsibility. (A, I, P)
• Proficient analytical ability; able to understand and select appropriate analytic techniques and models. (A, I, P)
• Effective problem-solving and problem structuring skills. (A, I)
• Clear judgement and decision-making skills. (A, I, P)
• Consultancy skills including negotiation and facilitation. (A, I)
• Coding skills in a computer software language such as VBA, R, Python, or similar. (A, I)
• Advanced Excel skills. (A, I)
• Excellent attention to detail. (A, I, P)
• The ability to build productive working relationships and work within a team. (A, I)

Experience

• Significant demonstrable experience in an analytical or research role using a range of analytic or research methods and techniques. (A, I)
• Demonstrable management experience. (A, I)
• Dealing with senior external customers/stakeholders. (A, I)
• Project management experience leading on-going projects and coordinating Divisional input. (A, I)

Desirable

Qualifications

• A higher degree (MSc/MBA/PhD) in a numerate subject. (A)
• Membership of the Government Operational Research Service (GORS). (A)

Knowledge

• Knowledge of how Banking and Capital financial markets operate and knowledge of regulatory frameworks defining this area. Understanding of Export Finance and how it relates to UKEF products and pricing. (A, I)
• Knowledge of stress testing of credit portfolios; reverse stress testing and scenario analysis. (A, I)
• Understanding of UKEF products. (A, I)
• Knowledge of Risk Mitigation products and tools to reduce UKEF portfolio concentrations (e.g. re-insurance, Credit Default Swaps). (A, I)

Skills/Ability

• Application of Machine Learning and/or Data Science Techniques. (A)
• Advanced coding skills on Excel VBA, Python. (A)

Experience

• Experience of leading and managing cross-department teams. (A, I)

Qualifications

Applicants must hold a highly numerate degree at a minimum 2:1 (or 2:2 with relevant experience or a postgraduate qualification) in subjects such as
Data Science, Decision Science, Econometrics, Engineering, Mathematics, Operational Research, Physics or Statistics, while other numerate degrees—
including Accounting, Biology, Business, Chemistry, Economics, Finance, Geography, IT, Management, Management Science, Psychology, Sociology,
Social Sciences and Systems Science—may be accepted if at least 50% of their modules are highly numerate, with evidence required prior to interview.
(A, T)

Behaviours

We'll assess you against these behaviours during the selection process:

• Seeing the Big Picture
• Managing a Quality Service
• Leadership
• Communicating and Influencing

Technical skills

We'll assess you against these technical skills during the selection process:

• Please provide example(s) where you have used operational research or analytic techniques in a professional setting.
• Presentation - a short presentation, this will be a topic determined by UKEF and will need to be prepared in advanced.
• Technical Question(s) - You will be assessed across your technical expertise and acumen, in relation to the essential criteria and the GORS Technical Framework at Grade 6

We only ask for evidence of these technical skills on your application form:

• Please provide example(s) where you have used operational research or analytic techniques in a professional setting.

Benefits

Alongside your salary of £78,926, UK Export Finance contributes £22,864 towards you being a member of the Civil Service Defined Benefit Pension scheme. Find out what benefits a Civil Service Pension provides.

• Learning and development tailored to your role
• An environment with flexible working options
• A culture encouraging inclusion and diversity
• A Civil Service pension with an employer contribution of 28.97%

Things you need to know

Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence can be a useful tool to support your application, however, all examples and statements provided must be truthful, factually accurate and taken directly from your own experience. Where plagiarism has been identified (presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own) applications may be withdrawn and internal candidates may be subject to disciplinary action. Please see our candidate guidance (opens in a new window) for more information on appropriate and inappropriate use.

Selection process details

This vacancy is using Success Profiles (opens in a new window), and will assess your Behaviours, Ability, Experience and Technical skills.

We are assessing candidates using Success Profiles and Line Management Standards (see Appendix 1) and across the whole process we will assess your Experience, Ability, Technical and Behaviours and Line Manager Standards as highlighted below.

The application must be completed by 23.55 on the day of the closing date for it to be accepted.

Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Artificial Intelligence can be a useful tool to support your application, however, all examples and statements provided must be truthful, factually accurate and taken directly from your own experience. Where plagiarism has been identified (presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own) applications may be withdrawn and internal candidates may be subject to disciplinary action. Please see our candidate guidance for more information on appropriate and inappropriate use.

Please ensure that you read through the Candidate Information Pack attached to this advert, before applying.

All applications will be sifted against our essential criteria outlined in the personal specification. In addition to this, applicants will also be asked to complete an on-line ability test, this must also be completed by 23:55pm on Tuesday 17 March 2026.

• Qualification
  • Applicants must hold a highly numerate degree at a minimum 2:1 (or 2:2 with relevant experience or a postgraduate qualification) in subjects such as Data Science, Decision Science, Econometrics, Engineering, Mathematics, Operational Research, Physics or Statistics, while other numerate degrees—including Accounting, Biology, Business, Chemistry, Economics, Finance, Geography, IT, Management, Management Science, Psychology, Sociology, Social Sciences and Systems Science—may be accepted if at least 50% of their modules are highly numerate, with evidence required prior to interview. Or existing member of the Government Operational Research Service professional body. If membership is not verified, then you will be withdrawn immediately from the recruitment round. (A)
• On-line ability test
  • Civil Service Numerical Test to be completed by 23:55pm on Tuesday 17 March 2026.
• Statement of suitability - You should fully articulate, in up to 1000 words, how you meet the essential criteria and as appropriate the desirable criteria outlined in the Person Specification within the Information Pack.
  1. Applications will first undergo a pre‑sift against selected essential criteria below.
  2. All remaining candidates will then be fully assessed against all the essential criteria.
  3. If, after this assessment there is still a high volume of candidates and/or candidates are tied, the desirable criteria will be used to differentiate between them.
• Technical Questions (250 Words)
  • Please provide example(s) where you have used operational research or analytic techniques in a professional setting.

For the initial sift your application will be evaluated against:

1. Experience - CV / Application and Statement of Suitability
2. Ability
   • Civil Service Numerical Test to be completed by 23:55pm on Tuesday 17 March 2026.
3. Technical Questions (250 Words)
   • Please provide example(s) where you have used operational research or analytic techniques in a professional setting.

In the event of a high volume of applications, there will be a pre-sift on the following essential criteria’s;

• Applicants must hold a highly numerate degree at a minimum 2:1 (or 2:2 with relevant experience or a postgraduate qualification) in subjects such as Data Science, Decision Science, Econometrics, Engineering, Mathematics, Operational Research, Physics or Statistics, while other numerate degrees—including Accounting, Biology, Business, Chemistry, Economics, Finance, Geography, IT, Management, Management Science, Psychology, Sociology, Social Sciences and Systems Science—may be accepted if at least 50% of their modules are highly numerate, with evidence required prior to interview. (A, T)
• Knowledge of Operational Research techniques – using mathematical and / or statistical modelling methods to address management problems requiring such specialist input. (A, I)
• Ability to lead, coach and manage both immediate team members and colleagues at all levels; ensuring that results are delivered, including through others for which the post-holder is not formally responsible. (A, I)
• Coding skills in a computer software language such as VBA, R, Python, or similar. (A, I)

If you are successful following the sift stage, you will be invited to an initial interview, via MS Teams; this will include the following assessment:

1. Behaviours / Experience - a formal panel interview where you will be interviewed across all four behaviours highlighted in Appendix 1 of the candidate Information Pack attached.
   1. Behaviour - Leadership (demonstrating the Line Management Standard - People)
   2. Behaviour - Managing a Quality Service
   3. Behaviour - Communicating and Influencing
   4. Behaviour - Seeing the Big Picture
2. Technical - you will be assessed across your technical expertise and acumen, in relation to the essential criteria
   1. Presentation - a short presentation, this will be a topic determined by UKEF and will need to be prepared in advanced.
   2. Technical Question(s) - You will be assessed across your technical expertise and acumen, in relation to the essential criteria and the GORS Technical Framework at Grade 6.

In the event that candidates receive tied scores following the interview stage, a second interview may be arranged. This additional stage will include technical questions aligned to the GORS Technical Framework with further details provided to the candidates prior to interview.

Details of interview panel members will be e-mailed to all successful candidates who are invited for interview.

Feedback will only be provided if you attend an interview or assessment.

Security

Successful candidates must undergo a criminal record check.Successful candidates must meet the security requirements before they can be appointed. The level of security needed is security check (opens in a new window).

See our vetting charter (opens in a new window).People working with government assets must complete baseline personnel security standard (opens in new window) checks.

Nationality requirements

Open to UK nationals only.

Working for the Civil Service

The Civil Service Code (opens in a new window) sets out the standards of behaviour expected of civil servants.

We recruit by merit on the basis of fair and open competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission's recruitment principles (opens in a new window).The Civil Service embraces diversity and promotes equal opportunities. As such, we run a Disability Confident Scheme (DCS) for candidates with disabilities who meet the minimum selection criteria.The Civil Service also offers a Redeployment Interview Scheme to civil servants who are at risk of redundancy, and who meet the minimum requirements for the advertised vacancy.

Diversity and Inclusion

The Civil Service is committed to attract, retain and invest in talent wherever it is found. To learn more please see theCivil Service People Plan (opens in a new window) and the Civil Service Diversity and Inclusion Strategy (opens in a new window).

Apply and further information

This vacancy is part of the Great Place to Work for Veterans (opens in a new window) initiative.Once this job has closed, the job advert will no longer be available. You may want to save a copy for your records.

Contact point for applicants

Job contact :

• Name : UKEF Recruitment
• Email : Recruitment2@ukexportfinance.gov.uk

Recruitment team

• Email : Recruitment2@ukexportfinance.gov.uk

Further information

Should you have a complaint or wish to raise any concerns regarding the recruitment process, please e-mail your complaint to the Head of Pay and Resourcing (UKEF) at Recruitment2@ukexportfinance.gov.uk and include “Complaint” in the subject heading. Should you remain dissatisfied following UKEF’s investigation then you can refer your complaint to the Commission - http://civilservicecommission.independent.gov.uk/making-complaint.

Attachments

Information Pack - Deputy Head of Operational Research and Analysis Opens in new window (pdf, 4390kB)