Risk Assessment, Selection and Forecasting Team Leader

Job summary

We are recruiting two Risk Assessment, Selection and Forecasting (RASAF) Team Leaders to join our RASAF Team.

The Risk Assessment, Selection and Forecasting (RASAF) team reports to the National Director, Delivery and plays a vital role in ensuring Ofsted delivers its national inspection targets. The team provides assurance on the delivery of statutory and policy commitments, identifies risks to delivery, and develops solutions to support effective operational planning.

This is a key leadership role within the RASAF team, with responsibility for managing a small team and working closely with senior colleagues across Policy, Finance and Ofsted's eight regions.

You will lead on producing accurate inspection forecasts for one or more Ofsted remits, providing clear analysis and insight to support planning and decision-making. Using data and evidence, you will identify trends, risks, and fluctuations in inspection volumes, advising senior leaders on proactive approaches to maintain delivery against targets.

The role also involves overseeing the selection of providers for inspection, ensuring inspections take place at the appropriate time and in line with statutory and policy requirements. You will support the use of risk assessment methodologies where appropriate and play a key role in ensuring Ofsted meets its commitments efficiently and effectively.

This is a fantastic opportunity to further your experience in Ofsted’s well-established team. The post holder will work with high-achieving professionals at all levels, surrounded by a friendly and supportive team. They will have access to amazing benefits, such as flexible working hours, the Civil Service Pension Scheme, and 32.5 days annual leave + 8 bank holidays. We offer a hybrid working model, so you may also choose to spend a proportion of time working from home.

Job description

Please refer to the job specification for further information.

Person specification

Please refer to the job specification for further information.

Qualifications

Degree level qualification in a numerate discipline or equivalent relevant knowledge and experience or professional qualification.

Behaviours

We'll assess you against these behaviours during the selection process:

• Delivering at Pace
• Seeing the Big Picture
• Changing and Improving
• Leadership
• Working Together
• Managing a Quality Service

We only ask for evidence of these behaviours on your application form:

• Delivering at Pace

Technical skills

We'll assess you against these technical skills during the selection process:

• Evidence of developing relationships with a broad range of stakeholders, particularly at senior level, from a range of different specialism such as policy, finance, and operational delivery teams.
• Ability to give clear advice to senior managers and stakeholders. Excellent written and verbal communication skills combined with an ability to present complex information in simple, concise, and visually engaging ways.
• Experience of developing and interpreting management information that supports operational delivery.
• Demonstrable understanding of at least one of Ofsted’s inspection and regulatory remits and objectives.
• Evidence of leading a specialist team. An ability to develop both the technical and non-technical skills to ensure the team is high-performing and meets the expectations of stakeholders in a dynamic and complex environment.
• An ability to manage the implementation of projects to deliver defined objectives and priorities.

We only ask for evidence of these technical skills on your application form:

• Evidence of developing relationships with a broad range of stakeholders, particularly at senior level, from a range of different specialism such as policy, finance, and operational delivery teams.
• Ability to give clear advice to senior managers and stakeholders. Excellent written and verbal communication skills combined with an ability to present complex information in simple, concise, and visually engaging ways.
• Experience of developing and interpreting management information that supports operational delivery.

Benefits

Alongside your salary of £71,748, Office for Standards in Education, Children's Services and Skills contributes £20,785 towards you being a member of the Civil Service Defined Benefit Pension scheme. Find out what benefits a Civil Service Pension provides (opens in a new window).

Full details of the benefits available can be found in our Ofsted Offer brochure.

Ofsted is devoted to equality, diversity and inclusion. Within our Ofsted Strategy 2023-2027 we have stated that we will improve the representation of under-represented groups across the organisation and publish our progress on this annually. We are always looking to expand on our diverse workforce by recruiting candidates from varied backgrounds and differing experiences. We are proud to be a Disability Confident – Leader, we continually engage with our 5 staff networks for protected characteristics, and highlight the work of our Equalities, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) Group. We ensure all candidates are treated with fair and open competition, with all appointments being made on merit and we use our Disability Confident Scheme (DCS) to provide assurance to all candidates of this.

Things you need to know

Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence can be a useful tool to support your application, however, all examples and statements provided must be truthful, factually accurate and taken directly from your own experience. Where plagiarism has been identified (presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own) applications may be withdrawn and internal candidates may be subject to disciplinary action. Please see our candidate guidance (opens in a new window) for more information on appropriate and inappropriate use.

Selection process details

This vacancy is using Success Profiles (opens in a new window), and will assess your Behaviours, Experience and Technical skills.

Application and shortlisting:

The selection panel will assess your application based on your evidence you have provided against the essential criteria as set out in the person specification.

We recommend using the STAR model (Situation, Task, Action, Result) to present your evidence.

You will also be asked to provide information within the “Employer/Activity History” section of the application form. This information is equivalent to the information you would provide on a CV setting out your career history (this may be used in the sifting process).

If we receive a high number of applications, an initial sift will be conducted based on the following two lead criteria's:

• Behaviour - Delivering at pace

• Evidence of developing relationships with a broad range of stakeholders, particularly at senior level, from a range of different specialism such as policy, finance, and operational delivery teams.

Where application numbers remain high following the initial sift, a full sift may be undertaken against the remaining essential criteria. Candidates who are successful at sift will progress to the next stage of the recruitment process.

Interview

Candidates who pass the benchmark at the shortlisting stage will be invited to an interview where you will be assessed against a combination of the the Civil Service behaviours and the technical/experience skills set out in section 3 of the job specification.

We will invite the most suitable candidates for a interview on week commencing Monday 14 December 2026 at 2 Rivergate, Bristol.

Feedback will only be provided if you attend an interview or assessment.

Security

Successful candidates must undergo a standard (or equivalent) criminal record check.People working with government assets must complete baseline personnel security standard (opens in new window) checks.

Nationality requirements

This job is broadly open to the following groups:

• UK nationals
• nationals of the Republic of Ireland
• nationals of Commonwealth countries who have the right to work in the UK
• nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities with settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS) (opens in a new window)
• nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities who have made a valid application for settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS)
• individuals with limited leave to remain or indefinite leave to remain who were eligible to apply for EUSS on or before 31 December 2020
• Turkish nationals, and certain family members of Turkish nationals, who have accrued the right to work in the Civil Service

Further information on nationality requirements (opens in a new window)

Working for the Civil Service

The Civil Service Code (opens in a new window) sets out the standards of behaviour expected of civil servants.

We recruit by merit on the basis of fair and open competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission's recruitment principles (opens in a new window).The Civil Service embraces diversity and promotes equal opportunities. As such, we run a Disability Confident Scheme (DCS) for candidates with disabilities who meet the minimum selection criteria.The Civil Service also offers a Redeployment Interview Scheme to civil servants who are at risk of redundancy, and who meet the minimum requirements for the advertised vacancy.

Diversity and Inclusion

The Civil Service is committed to attract, retain and invest in talent wherever it is found. To learn more please see theCivil Service People Plan (opens in a new window) and the Civil Service Diversity and Inclusion Strategy (opens in a new window).

Apply and further information

This vacancy is part of the Great Place to Work for Veterans (opens in a new window) initiative.The Civil Service welcomes applications from people who have recently left prison or have an unspent conviction. Read more about prison leaver recruitment (opens in new window).Once this job has closed, the job advert will no longer be available. You may want to save a copy for your records.

Contact point for applicants

Job contact :

• Name : People Services Delivery Team
• Email : Jobs@ofsted.gov.uk
• Telephone : 03000 131 487

Recruitment team

• Email : Jobs@ofsted.gov.uk

Further information

The law requires that selection for appointment to the Civil Service is on merit on the basis of fair and open competition as outlined in the Civil Service Commission's Recruitment Principles, which can be found at:
https://civilservicecommission.independent.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/20…

If you feel your application has not been treated in accordance with the Recruitment Principles, and you wish to make a complaint, you should email Ofsted recruitment at jobs@ofsted.gov.uk in the first instance. If you are not satisfied with the response you receive from the Department, you can contact the Civil Service Commission at:
https://civilservicecommission.independent.gov.uk/recruitment/civilserv…

Attachments

Job specification - Risk Assessment Selection and Forecasting Team Leader Opens in new window (pdf, 213kB)