Team Lead, Demand Forecasting

Job summary

This is a very exciting time to be joining HM Land Registry (HMLR) to ensure the organisation has the best understanding of future demand for its services and associated revenue, as well as the uncertainty and risks in these areas, supporting HMLR’s continuous improvement in data-driven decision-making.

As the Team Lead, Demand Forecasting, you will be applying your strong analytical leadership skills to lead a team delivering business-critical forecasting models and analysis used across the whole organisation and in wider government.

You will work effectively with leadership at all levels of the organisation, leveraging your team’s skillset appropriately to deliver projects that improve the forecasts and outputs, working with stakeholders to scope analytical requirements, engaging with subject matter experts to understand data, and act as an analytical expert, ensuring your team’s delivered analysis is high-quality and fit for purpose.

This is a fantastic opportunity to apply leadership to support the ongoing development of a robust forecasting and analysis function in an organisation which is keen to improve its use of data to drive continuous improvement.

This role offers extensive opportunities for professional growth and skills enhancement, with access to continuous learning and development, in both technical and soft skills, and considerable opportunities to apply learning and to develop leadership and strategic skills through exposure to high profile work and senior leaders.

Job description

Within your role, you will engage with other G7 analytical team leads across the group, applying your problem structuring and modelling expertise to ensure assumptions, data, and processes are aligned across wider modelling teams, whilst sharing knowledge and peer review between teams.

You will also communicate analytical outputs with impact, ensuring they are well understood by senior stakeholders in order to optimise the use and impact of your team's analysis, providing robust evidence to influence strategic decision-making.

You will have the autonomy to lead and take ownership of the development and delivery of your projects, and your efforts and achievements will be recognised. The organisation values and acknowledges the hard work and dedication of its employees, ensuring that your contributions do not go unnoticed.

Supported by highly engaged leaders, you will work in a dynamic and collaborative environment with a welcoming and inclusive team, and with wider cross-functional teams and the analytical community. These supportive networks will enhance your ability to deliver high-quality products.

This is a high-profile role, where stakeholders will depend on you to deliver a wide variety of well thought out analysis at pace, to support evidence-based decision making in HMLR.

For more information about the role and main duties, please see the attached Job Description.

Person specification

To be successful in this role it is essential you will have:

• A proven track record of presenting evidence and communicating complex analysis with impact to support decision-making at senior leadership level.
• Experience of line management and ensuring analytical quality assurance under time and resource pressure is essential.
• Ability to prioritise multiple work strands and manage projects effectively, whilst managing stakeholder expectations.
• Strong experience of statistical analysis, model development and forecasting.
• Strong experience of coding (one or more of: SQL, R, Python), and of data extraction and processing.
• Strong experience of a range of analytical and problem-solving techniques.
• Evidence of at least one high profile analytical project you have managed.
• GORS/GES/GSS or GDS skills, qualifications, knowledge and behaviours to allow badging at G7

We welcome applications from people who are already within the GORS, GES, GSS or GDS community.

For more information, please see the attached Job Description.

Visa Sponsorship

Please note that we will only offer sponsorship for a skilled worker visa where a role is in a certain business critical category. This role does not meet that category, and we will not sponsor a skilled worker visa.

You must ensure you have the appropriate right to work in the UK before applying.

Behaviours

We'll assess you against these behaviours during the selection process:

• Seeing the Big Picture
• Leadership
• Delivering at Pace
• Developing Self and Others

Technical skills

We'll assess you against these technical skills during the selection process:

• GORS/GES/GSS or GDS skills, qualifications, knowledge and behaviours to allow badging at G7

Benefits

Alongside your salary of £61,923, HM Land Registry contributes £17,939 towards you being a member of the Civil Service Defined Benefit Pension scheme. Find out what benefits a Civil Service Pension provides (opens in a new window).

#WeAreHMLR

At HM Land Registry our vision is a world leading property market as part of a thriving economy and a sustainable future. We are unique in terms of the economic and social impacts of our work, our ability to make a positive difference to the lives of our customers, our sense of mission, and our great people. They are the foundation of all we have achieved and all we aspire to in the future. We want our people to feel proud to work for HM Land Registry and able to fulfil their full potential.

We have a strong and positive culture, a commitment to inclusivity, an emphasis on continuous learning and development, and flexible ways of working. We offer competitive pay and annual leave, attractive pension options and a wide range of other benefits.

• We have integrity – we value honesty, trust and doing the right thing in the right way.
• We drive innovation – we are forward-thinking, embrace change and are continually improving our processes.
• We are professional – we value and grow our knowledge and professional expertise.
• We give assurance – we guarantee our services and provide confidence to the property market.

The HMLR Way – Our Shared Commitment

What you can expect from HMLR:

Inclusive & Empowering: A positive, healthy environment where everyone feels valued and empowered to contribute

High Performance: Access to tools, resources, and development opportunities within a supportive culture

Value & Recognition: We value team and individual improvement, learning from setbacks as much as celebrating success

Clarity & Transparency: Clear communication of our vision and priorities, so our direction and decisions are evident

You can find more information on our rewards package on our website.

Things you need to know

Artificial intelligence

Artificial intelligence can be a useful tool to support your application, however, all examples and statements provided must be truthful, factually accurate and taken directly from your own experience. Where plagiarism has been identified (presenting the ideas and experiences of others, or generated by artificial intelligence, as your own) applications may be withdrawn and internal candidates may be subject to disciplinary action. Please see our candidate guidance (opens in a new window) for more information on appropriate and inappropriate use.

Selection process details

This vacancy is using Success Profiles (opens in a new window), and will assess your Behaviours, Experience and Technical skills.

Please complete your CV to include your work history and any current professional badging. Please ensure you provide full details of your educational qualifications and grades, as these will be used to assess against entry requirements to professional badging.

We will be scoring your CV against this and the essential experience criteria:

• Proven track record of presenting evidence and communicating complex analysis with impact to support decision-making at senior leadership level.
• Experience of line management.
• Ability to prioritise multiple work strands and manage projects effectively, while managing stakeholder expectations.
• Experience of ensuring analytical quality assurance under time and resource pressure.

You will then be asked to complete a 250-word box to demonstrate how you meet the following essential technical criteria:

• Strong experience of statistical analysis, model development and forecasting.
• Strong experience of coding (one or more of: SQL, R, Python), and of data extraction and processing.
• Strong experience of a range of analytical and problem-solving techniques.
• Evidence of at least one high profile analytical project you have managed.

Finally, you will be asked to complete the Personal Statement section in up to 500 words how you meet the essential experience criteria listed in the attached Job Description, and what development would you hope to gain from the role.

In the event of a high volume of applications for this vacancy, the CV and essential technical criteria may be used as the lead sift criteria.

Please review your application form before clicking ‘submit’ – once you have submitted, you will not be able to amend your application. Ensure your application form is received by the closing date for receipt of applications – this is 23:55pm on the advertised date.

The sift will take place shortly after the closing date. If successful at the shortlisting stage, you will be invited to attend a virtual blended interview which will include a pre-prepared presentation w/c Monday 20 July or w/c Monday 27 July 2026.

The blended interview will test the technical skills, experience and behaviours listed in the attached job description.

Candidates may refer to notes within their video interview, but they should be used as a prompt only.

You should ensure you read the attached Job Description fully before submitting an application.

Where an individual taking up the responsibility will be based in Swansea Office, the ability to speak Welsh is desirable. This will not be tested in the application or interview process.

HMLR is accredited to the Disability Confident Scheme (DCS), which denotes organisations which have a positive attitude towards disabled people.

If you require the panel to consider a reasonable adjustment or there is anything else, they would like the panel to take into consideration please notify us of this at application stage where possible or during the process as soon as it becomes a requirement.

If you would like further information about the use of your personal data, please click on the link below:
Job Applicant Personal Information

Feedback will only be provided if you attend an interview or assessment.

Security

Successful candidates must undergo a criminal record check.People working with government assets must complete baseline personnel security standard (opens in new window) checks.

Nationality requirements

This job is broadly open to the following groups:

• UK nationals
• nationals of the Republic of Ireland
• nationals of Commonwealth countries who have the right to work in the UK
• nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities with settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS) (opens in a new window)
• nationals of the EU, Switzerland, Norway, Iceland or Liechtenstein and family members of those nationalities who have made a valid application for settled or pre-settled status under the European Union Settlement Scheme (EUSS)
• individuals with limited leave to remain or indefinite leave to remain who were eligible to apply for EUSS on or before 31 December 2020
• Turkish nationals, and certain family members of Turkish nationals, who have accrued the right to work in the Civil Service

Further information on nationality requirements (opens in a new window)

Working for the Civil Service

The Civil Service Code (opens in a new window) sets out the standards of behaviour expected of civil servants.

We recruit by merit on the basis of fair and open competition, as outlined in the Civil Service Commission's recruitment principles (opens in a new window).The Civil Service embraces diversity and promotes equal opportunities. As such, we run a Disability Confident Scheme (DCS) for candidates with disabilities who meet the minimum selection criteria.The Civil Service also offers a Redeployment Interview Scheme to civil servants who are at risk of redundancy, and who meet the minimum requirements for the advertised vacancy.

Diversity and Inclusion

The Civil Service is committed to attract, retain and invest in talent wherever it is found. To learn more please see theCivil Service People Plan (opens in a new window) and the Civil Service Diversity and Inclusion Strategy (opens in a new window).

Apply and further information

Once this job has closed, the job advert will no longer be available. You may want to save a copy for your records.

Contact point for applicants

Job contact :

• Name : Kelly Magee
• Email : kelly.magee@landregistry.gov.uk

Recruitment team

• Email : hrresourcingteam2@landregistry.gov.uk

Further information

If you feel your application has not been treated in accordance to the Recruitment Principles and you wish to make a complaint, please email hrresourcingteam2@landregistry.gov.uk in the first instance. If you are not satisfied with the response you receive from HM Land Registry then you may take your complaint to the Civil Service Commission: http://civilservicecommission.independent.gov.uk/making-complaint/

Attachments

JD G7 Analyst Opens in new window (pdf, 271kB)Candidate Pack 2026 Opens in new window (pdf, 1699kB)